Jessica Leval and Jennifer Marsico, Research Assistants, AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project

September 17, 2008

This November, eight years will have passed since the hotly contested presidential election of 2000--an election which brought sustained national attention to the problems surrounding voting processes. But long after butterfly ballots and hanging chads have faded as hot topics of conversation, other concerns remain, and election reform issues have become an increasing topic of interest within the political science discipline. In August, the Election Reform Project released a summary of the current state of play in the field, but research on election reform issues was also on display during the 104th American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting, held in Boston, Massachusetts from August 28-31. The research presented there, as well as in other recently published sources, indicates that reform is likely to involve sustained effort on a number of fronts.

Voter ID

One of the central topics of discussion related to election reform at this year's APSA meeting concerned the relationship between mandatory voter identification and turnout. Matt Barreto of the University of Washington, Stephen Nuno of the University of California-Irvine, and Gabriel Sanchez of the University of New Mexico presented a paper entitled "The Disproportionate Impact of Voter Identification Requirements on the Indiana Electorate," for which they surveyed registered and non-registered voters in October of 2007, asking if the individuals had one of the following: an expired drivers' license, a current drivers' license, a valid ID with the individual's full name, or a valid ID with the individual's full name that matches his or her current name (something especially relevant in cases of married women who may not have updated their IDs to reflect their married names). Barreto, Nuno and Sanchez find that minorities, foreign-born individuals, and both younger and elderly voters are more likely to lack proper identification, with Democrats having proper IDs at a slightly lower rate than Republicans. They conclude that Indiana's ID law, then, can disproportionately impact vulnerable communities and has a slight partisan bias.

In addition, Jonathan Katz of the California Institute of Technology presented his paper (PDF) "The Effect of Voter Identification Laws on Turnout," co-authored with Michael Alvarez. In their study, Katz and Alvarez sought to estimate the causal effect of more stringent voter ID laws and lower voter turnout. Using information from the Current Population Survey, they find a decline in turnout on the individual level, with a slight impact based on income and level of education; they also conclude, however, that there does not seem to be a disproportionate racial impact, nor does there appear to be an overall effect at the aggregate level.

Marjorie Hershey of Indiana University in Bloomington also presented her paper on "Costs of Voting: Effects on Turnout." In it, she explains the ways in which ID laws can affect specific groups in particular, including individuals with disabilities, lower incomes, and less education. Furthermore, she explains that blacks are more likely to be asked to present ID regardless of state voter ID laws, but that there is little evidence of voter ID laws affecting younger and older voters differently.

Residual Votes

Improving ballot designs is essential for lowering the residual vote count, or the percentage of ballots with invalid votes for a particular office, arising from undervoting, overvoting, and/or other types of mismarkings. David Kimball of the University of Missouri-St. Louis and Martha E. Kropf of the University of North Carolina-Charlotte presented their paper entitled "Advanced Voting and Residual Votes in the 2004 Presidential Election." They analyzed residual votes at the county level during six state gubernatorial races, and then looked at optical scan and hand-counted ballots in the same jurisdictions for the 2004 presidential election. Despite having to rely on unreliable county-level data, Kimball and Kropf's usable results indicate that residual vote rates for both early and polling place voting were roughly equal, but the rates for absentee voting were much higher. They conclude that increased absentee voting is likely to result in a higher residual vote rate on ballot measures, while early voting may keep the rate about the same. Thus, Kimball and Kropf explain that a temporary solution may be to encourage increased early, rather than absentee, voting in an attempt to lower the residual vote rates on ballot measures.

Charles Stewart of MIT also presented his paper (PDF) "Evaluating the Performance of Election Administration Across States," co-authored with Adam Berinsky, Gabriel Cenz, Michael Alvarez, Stephen Ansolabehere and Thad Hall. Stewart, et al. are working to find alternative measures to test for voter accuracy; rather than using the standard measure of residual votes, they are conducting surveys via phone and internet to learn more about voters' experiences on Election Day.

Voter Confidence

At the core of many of the issues surrounding election reform is the problem of low voter confidence, as perceptions of the dysfunctions of voting processes increase cynicism about the fairness of elections. Thad Hall of the University of Utah presented his paper "Holistic Evaluations of Voter Confidence," co-authored with Michael Alvarez of the California Institute of Technology. Hall and Alvarez surveyed both voters and poll workers and observed various aspects of the election process in New Mexico. They find that residents of New Mexico seem to be confident in the overall election, though have concerns about voter ID laws. Hall and Alvarez also find that Latino males are more likely to be asked for ID than other voters, but that the poll workers who request the ID are also more likely to be Latino; the authors hypothesized that this behavior is likely due to insufficient training. They also conducted a study in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, a location with a history of election administration problems. Hall and Alvarez find that voters there are very confident in new voting technology, but that there are numerous problems with the poll workers and poll worker training, as indicated by incident reports filed by voters.

Auditing Elections

The image of Florida election workers attempting to discern voter intent from ambiguously marked ballots in 2000 reminds us of the importance of having effective recount procedures. In this vein, Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan presented "Designing an Audit System to Increase Voter Confidence in Elections," co-authored with his colleague Walter Mebane, Jr. Building on their preliminary findings, the authors are now in the process of obtaining 75,000 ballot images from 2006 to be used to test sample designs and determine possible new electronic procedures for recounts in the state of Michigan, where recounts are currently conducted by hand.

To analyze audit procedures, Lonna Rae Atkeson of the University of New Mexico has done case studies of Davis County, Utah and Bernalillo County, New Mexico, simulating post-election audits in both jurisdictions. Atkeson confronted several logistical problems, however, including difficulty finding ballot reconciliation numbers and locating election officials who were able to properly count and read all of the ballots. To determine if ballots are securely transferred to locations where they are counted, she examined the chain of custody of ballots by interviewing election workers and other witnesses to the process. Drawing on this research, she is currently exploring ways to clarify voter intent and to improve state audit laws so they will be equipped to deal with invalid ballots.

In addition to the research presented at APSA, others are engaging in similar efforts. Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is currently working on developing audit methods for improving Wisconsin's election data collection infrastructure in partnership with the state's Government Accountability Board. Designed to improve the process of collecting registration data through a combination of election official training, educational outreach and database updates, this project will ultimately evaluate the effectiveness of new procedures in Wisconsin following the election.

Vote-By-Mail/Absentee Voting

The challenges of voting in locations other than the polling place have also been major interests among election reform experts. David Hill of Stetson University presented his paper entitled "Re-examining Motor Voter: The Interactive Effects of Electoral Competition and Registration Reform on Turnout." Analyzing ways to more effectively move young voters into the voting electorate and thereby reduce the voting age gap, Hill examines convenience voting, registration, and age using self-reported turnout data. He finds that with unrestricted absentee voting, the probabilities of voting for both older and younger voters are higher. Though still in its preliminary stages, Hill's research shows that Election Day Registration and no-excuse absentee voting can help increase participation by young voters.

In addition, Marc Meredith of Stanford University's Graduate School of Business presented his paper on "Electoral Institutions, Learning, and Political Participation: The Case of Vote-By-Mail Balloting." Meredith's study looks at early voting to determine if late campaign information gets lost when voters cast their ballots early, or if that information is still an important part of voters' decisions. Meredith concludes that in some cases, in addition to increasing the risk of speeding up the purging of registration lists, voting-by-mail does, indeed, make a difference in the probability of voting for a particular candidate.

Voter Registration

Since every state but North Dakota requires voters to register, election reform researchers are examining the possible influence of voter registration on who participates in the election process. Margaret Groarke of Manhattan College presented her paper, "NVRA: The Impact of Variations in Implementation and Purging," which uses a formula to account for the number of deceased and felons who were purposely and legitimately removed in each state. Doug Hess of George Washington University also presented his paper "Evaluating the NVRA with County-Level Data and Indicators of Compliance: A Multi-Level Regression Analysis," co-authored with his colleague Jody Herman. Hess and Herman looked into specific ways in which Section 7 of the National Voter Registration Act (which requires public assistance agencies to perform certain registration functions) can increase turnout. Using multi-level logistic regressions, they determine that Section 7 does, indeed, have a strong positive impact on low income, minimum wage women in particular; in addition, Section 7 has a stronger impact on non-whites than whites.

Provisional Balloting

The rules in HAVA dealing with the conditions under which a provisional ballot may be cast vary widely from state-to-state, and consequently, the subject of provisional balloting has also been a major focus among those studying election reform. David Kimball of the University of Missouri-St. Louis co-authored "The Political Geography of Provisional Ballots" with Brady Baybeck, also of the University of Missouri-St. Louis, which explores whether provisional voting is concentrated in areas with large numbers of individuals who might require provisional ballots, such as voters who move a lot, people who are not registered, and/or groups that tend to lack resources or civic skills. Kimball and Baybeck find a high correlation between the percentage of non-white voters and low turnout, as well as high geographic clustering of residual votes by race.

David Andersen of Rutgers University also presented his paper entitled "A Peek Inside: How Provisional Ballots Can Cast Light Upon Voter ID and Turnout." Utilizing three hypotheses--that more stringent voter ID laws should bring an increase in provisional balloting; that verification rates for provisional balloting should decrease as more provisional ballots are being cast; and that both of those dynamics should be more visible in urban environments--Andersen finds that the percentage increases in provisional ballots under these conditions is not statistically significant, though he will be continuing his research to explore the question further.

Comparative Resources

In addition to the range of academic research presented at APSA, a new resource developed by the Election Law @ Moritz program at Ohio State allows users to create comprehensive, side-by-side comparisons of state election laws based on a wide range of "key questions about key states," including institutional arrangements; voter registration; challenges (both pre- and post-Election Day); provisional ballots; early and absentee voting; voting technology; polling place operations; ballot security; emergency preparedness; and post-election processes. With this tool, experts and students alike will be able to identify particular potential problem areas for November--issues that are likely to expand the election reform research field even further.

Jessica Leval can be reached at jessica.leval@aei.org. Jennifer Marsico can be reached at jennifer.marsico@aei.org.

Viewpoint is an occasional feature analyzing various election reform issues.